India 1.0 + India 2.0 = One Big Indian Market

I’ve been in India for little over a week now. And every time I talk to people doing business in India, there’s a recurring theme with a underlying message. India, with a population of over 1.1 billion people, is not one big homogeneous market. There’s a small high-end segment that’s typically less than 10% of the potential market. Beyond that, it’s a highly fragmented market segmented by various attributes, among other things culture and language (about 20 official languages and hundreds of dialects).

Some stats that I have gathered from talking to people. These numbers are approximate, so take it with a grain of salt. If they’re inaccurate by a wide margin, drop me a note or leave a comment.

• A little under 10% Indians are comfortable English.
• The PC penetration is about 2-3%, so there are only about 25-30M installed PCs in India. About half, a little over 15M, have internet connection.
• Less than 15% of Indians own a credit card. Indians, currently, spend just 1% of their total purchases through credit cards.
• About 300M mobile phone users in India, of which only about 10% have GPRS enabled (mobile web enabled) phones. Of the approx 30M web-enabled mobile phone users, only about 10-15M actually browse the web from their mobile devices.
• Of the 300M mobile subscribers, only 10% are post-paid and have a monthly recurring subscription. The bulk 90% are pre-paid, they pay for wireless talk minutes upfront and pay as they go.
• However, 35% of revenues for mobile operators comes from the 10% post-paid subscribers, and the remaining 65% from the 90% pre-paid subscribers.
• Typically only 10% of revenues for mobile operators comes from VAS (value added services) that includes SMS. The bulk 90% of revenues comes from basic voice services. The mobile operators are running out of bandwidth to support the 300M mobile users, so a bulk of the soon-to-be-available 3G spectrum will go towards supporting voice for existing and new mobile users.

People I have talked to, frequently refer to this divide in the Indian market as the Tier 1 India and Tier 2 & 3 India. Someone I talked to recently, referred to it as India 1.0 and India 2.0. India 1.0 and 2.0 just sounds better from the company’s perspective -

• India 1.0 is the company’s India entry strategy, targeting the high-end market that probably already has brand awareness and willingness to pay. These users are a natural fit with the company’s existing brand and product, and hence relatively easy to acquire. But that’s just a fraction (10% or less) of the addressable market.
• India 2.0 is the company’s growth/expansion strategy in India, going after a market that’s hard to crack. The India 2.0 strategy targets the fragmented 90% Indian market, and this requires product and market innovation and willingness to adapt.

Entrepreneur.com has a good article on big-name brands sharing their experiences of going after the Indian market:

“Our learnings were clear: ‘Ask not what percentage of an existing market your brand can achieve. Ask how large a market your brand can create by putting resources behind creating a category,’”

Following The Mumbai Mayhem On Twitter, And The Role of Twitter In Breaking News

Since the news of the Mumbai attacks first broke yesterday afternoon, I have been switching between live video streams on Indian news channels CNN-IBN and NDTV. I have also been closely following the #mumbai room on Twitter, new tweets are coming in at a furious pace. There’s an ongoing idealogical debate on whether Twitter is a real source of news, especially with the backdrop of the unfortunate terrorist attacks in Mumbai. The tweets are a mix of people expressing their opinion, relaying conversations with friends and family in Mumbai, repeating what they’re seeing on TV, and lot of retweeting. So even though the signal-to-noise ratio on Twitter is pretty low, and hard to tell facts from rumors and speculation, Twitter is still a key source of real-time update aggregation to stay on top of all the news.

While a majority of big media organizations have already developed or acquired a citizen journalism platform, #mumbai room on Twitter was where all the action was yesterday and given Twitter’s adoption that’s not going to change anytime soon. So to all big media companies betting big on Citizen Journalism – it’s hard to change consumer behavior, so hoping users will come directly to you and provide news and assets is hoping for a bit much. Full credit to CNN TV in covering the Mumbai terror events -  without waiting for assets to flow into iReport.com, it was apparent that CNN staffers were actively monitoring the twitter streams yesterday and in fact invited some active twitter users to speak on TV from Mumbai.

I was speaking with a WSJ blogger last week, right after the Motrin incident on Twitter, about the relevance and significance of Twitter. In his daily quest for breaking news, he said he’s now closely monitoring Twitter – following several people on Twitter and keeping a close eye on trending topics. The stream of data on Twitter is just that (raw data), and it’s upto the mainstream media given their resources and creditworthiness to mine this data and filter the signal from noise.

Forsche: Taxi Service In Mumbai for Women By Women

I watched this short piece on Current TV a while ago. While I was intrigued by it, I wasn’t blown away with the business model. First, it’s hard to scale and secondly, there are no barriers to entry. If this takes off, there will definitely be new entrants. But looks like Forsche has had a great run – they raised Rs 14 lacs to fund the venture, and with 18 taxis, has managed to break even in less than six months

CUSTOMER NEED (high) – There’s definitely a need, as the working women population keeps growing and as safety on the road becomes a concern for women of all ages.

WILLINGNESS TO PAY (medium/high) – Forsche charges Rs 200 per hour, according to this Hindu article. Our services are 20 per cent higher than other taxis, claims the founder of Forsche, Revathi Roy.

ATTRACTIVE MARGINS (medium/high) – While this is a CAPEX intensive venture, upfront investment to purchase the cabs, the ongoing fixed cost is not very high. Each driver takes home Rs.9,500 per month. As a 24 hrs operation and assuming each driver works a 12 hr shift, Forshe should breakeven on the salary expenses within the first week of each month. I’m guessing the second biggest expense would be gas/petrol

But something hit me recently about Forsche – this is not just a novel cab service concept. Imagine the thousands of female passengers that get on and off the Forsche cabs everyday, and right there you’ve a very niche, targeted demographic. They can be directly targeted with samples/products in the taxi, and through magazines and TV screens. Forsche has managed to create a new vertical for direct marketing to an affluent, female demographic and a secondary revenue stream (in the form of advertising) for the venture!

Remembering R.D.Burman…

I had a bunch of R.D.Burman tracks, and I found a couple videos on YouTube – so wanted to package it all together into a post. June 27th was R.D.Burman’s 69th birth anniversary. Popularly known as Pancham (fifth note in Hindustani music) to his family, friends and fans, his music has been enjoyed by more than 2 generations of music lovers since first his independent composition for Chotte Nawab in 1961. .

After his best years in the 70s, Pancham was overlooked by the Indian film industry in the late 80s and early 90s. Arguably, he was ahead of his time. I remember talking to Manohari Singh, his music assistant and saxophone player, in 2003 long after Pancham’s death. Manohari Singh said, “Pancham knew we were back in the game when he had finished composing the music for Vidhu Vinod Chopra’s 1942: A Love Story. Pancham told us be ready for good times again.” Unfortunately, Pancham passed away on 4th Jan 1994, just weeks before the release of the film.

Vishwas Nerurkar writes in his book on Pancham, “My assessment of a great composer is that he should fulfill three criteria: 1) timeless compositions, offering the same freshness of melody years after their period or lifetime; 2) originality; and 3) trend-setter in the industry. On each of these three vital conditions, Pancham emerges in bright colors and honours.”

During his peak in the 70s, Pancham claimed he was composing 4-5 songs/day. A couple songs from lyricist Gulshan Bawra’s tribute to Pancham. In a heavy Punjabi accent, Bawra introduces these songs with anecdotes on how they were composed.

Kasme Vaade Nibhayenge Hum (the sarson saga)

Jane Jaan O Meri Jane Jaan (the newspaper influence)

Samandar Mein Nahake (the monsoon magic)

Pancham has collaborated with many western musicians, but his work with Jose Flores to produce ‘Pantera’ is commonly known. Though the Pantera songs are not among Pancham’s best compositions, they’re very rare. So I’ve uploaded the Pantera title here, and the hindi version he used for Priyadarshan’s Gardish.

Pantera (with Jose Flores)

Rang Rangeeli Raat (Gardish)

Pancham was a genius in inventing new sounds – rubbing a comb against plastic tube for Mere Samnewali Khidki (Padosan), blowing into an empty ‘Thumbs Up’ bottle for Mehbooba Mehbooba (Sholay), tapping glass with a spoon for Chura Liya Hai (Yaadon Ki Baarat). These are Pancham’s original musicians demonstrating his talent for composing and inventing new sounds.

And in this one, his musicians are jamming away to some of the old classics.

Mumbai-Pune Expressway Among World’s Fastest Roads

Wired features the world’s fastest roads in its latest edition of the magazine, and the Mumbai-Pune Expressway is one of the five fastest roads.

Writes Wired, “These are well-engineered roads with sporadic law enforcement and a high straightness index. They’re in places where fairly consistent temperatures prevent car-tossing pavement buckles and there’s no danger of road salt corroding your $200K engine-with-wheels. In these pace havens, speed limits are just a running start.”

Wired’s list:

1. I-75 (Alligator Alley), Florida, US — Distance: 82.9 miles
2. A81, Gottmadingen to Weinsberg, Germany — Distance: 121 miles
3. Mumbai-Pune Expressway, India — Distance: 55 miles
4. Goudies Road, Reporoa, New Zealand — Distance: 9.1 miles
5. Attiki Odos, Greece — Distance: 35.6 miles

While stories of accidents due to speeding on the Mumbai-Pune Expressway are fairly common, I didn’t realize drivers were doing 200kmph on the expressway.

India: A Services Based Economy

More Kiran Karnik, who as I mentioned in my previous post, was the closing keynote speaker at the Indian Business Conference 2008.

As the former President of Nasscom, Karnik focussed on IT and its benefit to society and also on India’s attempt at shifting from a service based economy toward manufacturing.

India’s GDP: 22% agriculture, 54% services

IT-BPO exports = 40 billion dollars = 5.5% of GDP

Distribution of exports by region: Bangalore 36%, Delhi/Noida/Gurgaon 17%, Mumbai/Pune 15%
How is IT benefiting the Indian society?
* Gender Equality: Young women earning at par with male counterparts.
* Good work ethic: Long working hours in a professional work environment.
* Application towards public service and social causes: NGO emergency services, online payment of bills, online rail reservation, etc.
Total organized labor force in India = 15M; IT accounts for nearly 2M direct jobs, and 7-8M indirect jobs (support/household services).

As a services-based economy, India is losing out on its two competitive advantages:
* Rupee getting stronger against the dollar.
* Wage inflation – salaries rising 15-20% every year.

Problems with the education system in India:
* Individualized – no group projects or class discussions; the only team work is when students decide to collaborate during exams (cheat)!
* Poor talent pool – Only 25% grads are suitable for direct employment, the remaining 75% varying degrees of training.

Photo courtesy: NYTimes.com from a recent article about debt collection services moving to India.

Insurance Against Ticketless Travel In Mumbai Trains

Kiran Karnik, former President of Nasscom, was the closing keynote speaker at the Indian Business Conference 2008. Karnik said, Innovation will the key to India’s future. And good innovation doesn’t just mean product innovation (new products coming out of India), but could also include process innovation. For e.g.

For anyone that has traveled in a crowded (understatement) local train in Mumbai, where there’s hardly any breathing space, what are the chances that a TC (ticket checker) walking into the train and checking for tickets. Not to mention, the serpentine queues at the ticket window in case you’re not a regular monthly pass holder. So an Indian entrepreneur came up with the ingenious idea of providing insurance for getting caught traveling without ticket. You pay 500 rupees to get insurance, and if you do get caught traveling without a ticket, you pay the 250 rupees fine to the TC and then turn in your receipt for a full refund.

You can run the numbers to figure out the value proposition for the traveler and whether this is a profitable venture. But on the surface it sounds like an unethical business practice – the venture is encouraging people to travel without ticket. Well, here’s the twist – if you’ve ever been caught by a TC, you probably also know that there’s a pretty good chance you can bribe your way out of it without having to pay the full penalty. Hence, the Indian Railways doesn’t see a dime. However, this venture insists you pay the fine in order to get a receipt. Therefore, it discourages you from bribing the TC. Less corruption!

This story was originally published on this blog and was later even picked by Freakonomics.

Photo courtesy: WSJ.com. View the complete slideshow here.

Five Differences Between India and China

Rajiv Lall, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Infrastructure Development Finance Company (IDFC), was the opening keynote speaker at the India Business Conference 2008. The India-China economy comparison is inevitable in any business conference. As the head of IDFC, Lall talked about India’s infrastructure issues by comparing it to China’s.

Note: I haven’t had the time to figure out how to insert a table within Wordpress, therefore I created an img. Please click thru the img to see full table text.

Indian government finances 50% of its infrastructure projects. Therefore, India is not as highly levered as China where the govt only invests 16% from the budget and 54% is funded by debt from banks and private sector. However, India has very high subsidies and inefficient distribution system and hence loss-making operations. For e.g. 45% of the total power distributed is lost due to theft (illegal tapping of power lines).

In India, only 44% villages have power. Farmers enjoy subsidies, and power is delivered for free to villages. On the other hand, 99% of China’s villages are powered. Rural taxes are often higher than those in urban areas.

Said Lall, India’s biggest challenge – Leadership. Enough said!